Bancherul - BANCI / ENGLISH / Raiffeisen maintains Romanian GDP growth estimate for 2011, lowers 2012 forecast

Raiffeisen has maintained its forecast for Romania’s economic growth this year at 1.5 per cent, Mediafax informs. Nevertheless, it revised its forecast for 2012 from 3.5 per cent to 2.7 per cent, considering that Central and Eastern European countries are beginning to feel the effects of the economic slowdown at global level.

“In Romania economic activities slowed down in Q2. Industrial production dropped in the last several months and confidence in industry dropped because of a smaller number of orders,” a Raiffeisen analysis reads.

In the context in which recent Euro Zone and US economic data are fueling fears about a new recession and Romania’s exports in the Euro Zone represent 60 per cent of its total exports, Raiffeisen revised downwards its forecast on Romania’s GDP growth in 2012.

The bank points out that internal demand and investments will not have the capacity to compensate the drop in Romanian exports, the situation being similar in Bulgaria’s case where Raiffeisen estimates a GDP growth of 2.5 per cent in both years.

The Romanian government is expecting an economic growth of 1.5 per cent this year and of 3.7 per cent next year.

At the same time Raiffeisen has revised its estimate on the RON’s evolution against the EUR, forecasting an average exchange rate of RON 4.21/EUR this year, in contrast to the RON 4.17/EUR rate estimated in June.

For 2012 Raiffeisen estimates an average exchange rate of RON 4.19/EUR, in contrast to its earlier forecast of RON 4.08/EUR.

The bank revised downwards its forecast for Central and Eastern Europe’s GDP too, from 3.3 to 3.2 per cent for 2011 and from 3.7 to 2.7 per cent for 2012.

Among Central European countries Hungary had the most disappointing GDP evolution in Q1 and Raiffeisen lowered its economic growth forecast to 2 per cent for this year and 1.5 per cent for 2012.

Raiffeisen revised downwards its forecast for 2012 in what concerns the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia too, invoking the difficult outlook for the countries’ main Euro Zone trade partners. For next year Raiffeisen expects an economic growth of 1.9 per cent for the Czech Republic, 3.4 per cent for Poland and 3 per cent for Slovakia.