Banca Centrala a Poloniei a luat ieri masuri de urgenta pentru contracararea crizei COVID-19: a scazut dobanda de referinta cu o jumatate de punct, la 1% pe an, un record minim istoric, si a adoptat masuri neconventionale de politica monetara, pentru a putea furniza lichiditati suplimentare.
De asemenea, banca centrala a Poloniei a scazut semnificativ nivelul rezervelor minime obligatorii, de la 3,5% la 0,5%, majorand in acelasi timp dobanda pentru rezerve, de la 0,5% la 1%, in vederea furnizarii de lichiditati pietei interbancare.
Masurile neconventionale au fost introduse pentru a sustine economia afectata de criza COVID-19.
Masurile includ:
- operatiuni repo, prima de acest fel fiind derulata in 16 martie, prin care banca centrala a cumparat obligatiuni in valoare de 7,3 miliarde zloti.
- achizitia de titluri de stat de pe piata secundara (termen cunoscut si sub denumirea de Quantitative Easing - QE, utilizat si de BCE), pentru mentinerea fluiditatii lichiditatilor, in contextul cresterii imprumuturilor statutului pentru asigurarea pachetului financiar de sprijin pentru economie.
- facilitati de creditare tip discount pentru banci (similare facilitatii TLTRO a BCE), care sa permita bancilor refinantarea creditelor pentru firme.
Masurile monetare introduse de banca centrala pregatesc terenul pentru pachetul de stimulare financiara care va fi anuntat de guvernul polonez, mentioneaza analistii Erste Bank.
In ziua precedenta, Banca Centrala a Poloniei a publicat un comunicat in care a informat despre masurile de urgenta pe care le va adopta in contextul COVID-19.
Iata comunicatul:
Statement of the NBP Management Board of 16 March 2020
Date: 2020-03-16
The spread of the coronavirus epidemic represents an increasingly grave threat for public health and requires decisive responses. The existing situation also poses a threat to Poland’s real economy. Narodowy Bank Polski is monitoring the situation of companies which it surveys under its so-called quick monitoring and has the possibility to conduct rapid surveys. On this basis we know that, while the liquidity situation of the majority of companies has not yet deteriorated significantly, because little time has passed since the existence of the state of epidemic threat in Poland, the situation is nevertheless very dynamic and has already begun to worsen, in certain areas significantly. Enterprises are reporting very grave concerns about the growth of payment backlogs. It is also known that certain exporters are not receiving due payments from their foreign counterparties. The operations of certain companies may also be limited as a result of the compulsory quarantine of employees or also due to the need for them to stay at home, among others, in order to care for children, the disabled or elderly persons. Moreover, there is a deterioration in sentiment leading to a reduction in purchases of non-food goods and services, as well as a disruption of global supply chains and investments.
Taking into account the gravity of the situation and threat for the real economy, the NBP Management Board, on the basis of the regulations in force, has taken the decision to make use of additional instruments. We are introducing operations supplying the banks with liquidity, so-called repo operations. Access to these operations will be a type of insurance against the appearance of the need to supply banks with liquidity. Many central banks have already undertaken such measures. We carried out the first repo operation today. We will also introduce the large-scale purchase of Treasury bonds on the secondary market as part of structural operations of the open market, which will change the long-term structure of liquidity in the banking sector. These operations should also result in the maintenance of liquidity in the Treasury bond secondary market. We will introduce discount credit for banks which – like the TLTRO programme introduced by the ECB – will enable the refinancing of loans granted by banks to non-financial corporations. We are also recommending the Monetary Policy Council to significantly cut the required reserve rate and raise the interest on the reserve from 0.5% to the level of the reference rate. This will enable the creation of an additional liquidity buffer for banks and will lower their costs related to the maintenance of reserves.
The NBP Management Board is introducing or recommending the above-mentioned measures in order to support the right responses on the part of fiscal and supervision policy as well as on the part of the banking sector. Above all, urgent measures are necessary to reduce the burden on enterprises, which should limit losses and reduce the risk of bankruptcies. Detailed solutions fall within the competences of the government. They could include such measures as the temporary introduction of cash accounting methods for all companies and the suspension of tax payments as well as social security (ZUS) and Employee Equity Plan (PPK) contributions and splitting them into interest-free instalments to be paid following a grace period, at the enterprise’s reasoned request. Companies that find themselves in a difficult situation would not pay taxes anyway, and without such a solution they will face bankruptcy. In justified cases, a rather radical but effective solution would be the possibility to reduce wages (no lower than the minimum wage) for a defined period, with the obligation to recompensate at a later date. This type of solution is certainly more favourable than bankruptcy and unemployment. It should also be considered to allow ZUS to compensate enterprises for the costs of absence due to the coronavirus epidemic already from the first day.
The Polish Financial Supervision Authority should closely monitor the character and scope of the impact of the epidemic on the ability of banks to provide financial services and periodically report important findings in this scope to the Financial Stability Committee. The Polish Financial Supervision Authority should also agree to the use of liquidity surpluses in relation to the minimum required LCR in order to ensure temporary liquidity to non-financial corporations – without prejudice to their prudential assessment. Finally, a flexible approach to the implementation by banks of the MREL requirement would be desirable, which would allow banks to fully use the period provided for in BRRD II, i.e. until 2024.
The implementation of a grace period for the repayment of loans that has been announced by the banks should also be assessed positively. Banks could also be supported by reducing or suspending the banking tax, in particular, in the scope of corporate exposure. The NBP Management Board also supports a reduction in the systemic risk buffer in order to maintain the supply of credit by banks. A reduction in the rate from 3% to 0% would free up approximately PLN 30 billion of capital.
Last Friday, the President of NBP announced that he will propose to the Monetary Policy Council a reduction in NBP interest rates. The NBP Management Board supports such a decision. This would lower the current interest margins of banks; however, in the long run it will positively influence the financial situation of banks due to its favourable impact on the quality of the loan portfolio. The banking sector in Poland is functioning stably, is profitable and has large liquidity and capital buffers. Unlike the global financial crisis, the current situation is not connected with the banking sector, and currently the main challenge is related to the need to maintain the liquidity of non-financial enterprises. This is why it is necessary to focus at the moment firstly on the situation of the non-financial enterprise sector so that the temporary fall in demand and production does not lead to a permanent reduction in employment and bankruptcies. Many firms are borrowers and a reduction in interest rates will improve their financial situation, the same as in the case of households repaying loans, in particular housing loans. An interest rate cut is an immediate and direct way to reduce the costs of credit obligations. Therefore, this is relief for the majority of borrowers, including for the public finance sector. Changes in interest rates will not prevent supply-side disruptions, nor will they make demand in the economy grow in the short term, but they will reduce the burden resulting from existing obligations, which will provide support for the budgets of firms and households and also reduce the costs of the necessary fiscal measures.
The measures implemented and recommended by NBP are reversible – this is important should the situation rapidly improve, which we are all counting on. Decisive and pre-emptive action is currently necessary to prevent the temporary economic disruptions from becoming permanent, and is necessary for the maintenance of the long-term potential of the Polish economy.
The NBP Management Board would also like to inform that, despite the increased withdrawals of customers, the supply of money to banks is running smoothly in the whole of the country. We would like to thank all professional cash cycle participants for their commitment to ensure that society has uninterrupted access to cash. The value of banknotes in NBP’s supplies enables the full realisation of the banks’ orders. As a standard, NBP conducts the daily monitoring of the withdrawal and lodgement of Polish currency by banks.
Information from the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council held on 17 March 2020
The Council decided to cut the NBP reference rate by 0.5 percentage points, i.e. to 1.00%.
At the same time, the Council set the remaining NBP interest rates at the following levels:
▪ lombard rate at 1.50%;
▪ deposit rate at 0.50%;
▪ rediscount rate at 1.05%;
▪ discount rate at 1.10%.
Moreover, the Council decided to decrease the required reserve ratio from 3.5% to 0.5% and to increase the remuneration of the required reserves from 0.5% to the reference rate level.
At the beginning of the year the global economy grew at relatively slow, albeit stable pace. Due to the spread of coronavirus the global economic outlook has recently
substantially deteriorated.
Measures introduced in many countries to counteract the
further spread of coronavirus, including restrictions imposed on transport and services sector, along with falling consumer and business confidence weaken the current activity in many economies.
The latest forecasts indicate an improvement in economic conditions further ahead, although its pace will depend on effectiveness of epidemic containment measures as well as the impact of current disruptions on the economic agent’s incomes
and sentiment in the longer run.
In these circumstances many countries has announced – apart from measures directly aimed at limiting the spread of the virus – the introduction of fiscal measures to contain economic losses related to coronavirus and temporary suspension of business activity.
Due to the deteriorating outlook and increased uncertainty about the durability of coronavirus economic impact, the financial markets sentiment has also deteriorated in recent days.
It has been accompanied by considerable fall in global oil prices.
The major central banks has substantially eased their monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, bringing them close to zero, restarted asset purchases and increased the liquidity in the financial market. Due to already negative interest rates, the European Central Bank eased monetary conditions by, inter alia, increasing the scale of liquidity provision and asset purchases. Many other central banks cut interest rates.
In Poland, economic conditions in the first months of the year were relatively favourable. However, coronavirus epidemic, due to its detrimental impact on sentiments, together with measures limiting its´ spread – will curtail economic activity in some sectors in the short run.
These effects might be amplified by simultaneous slump in economic activity in many countries. At the same time, further ahead, they will probably be mitigated by stimulus packages introduced in many countries.
Inflation in Poland stood at 4.7% y/y in February 2020. Expected economic slowdown in the nearest future together with the significant fall in global oil prices will contribute to marked decrease in inflation.
Consequently, latest forecasts indicate a higher probability
of inflation decreasing more quickly in 2020 than anticipated in the March projection and of inflation falling below the NBP inflation target in the monetary policy transmission horizon.
In these circumstance, the Council decided to cut the NBP interest rates.
At the same time, in order to limit the risk of current economic disruption weighing on credit supply, the Council cut the required reserve ratio from 3.5% to 0.5% and increased the remuneration of required reserves from 0.5% to the reference rate level.
Moreover, in accordance with Monetary policy guidelines for 2020, to limit the risk of tensions in domestic financial market, NBP will provide liquidity to the banking sector using repo transactions.
NBP will also purchase government bonds on the secondary
market as part of the structural operations that change the long-term liquidity structure in the banking sector and contribute to maintaining the liquidity in the government bond secondary market.
Furthermore NBP will offer bill discount credit aimed at refinancing new loans granted to economic entities by banks.
In the Council´s assessment, all the above-mentioned measures will mitigate the negative economic impact of coronavirus spread, while further ahead they will contribute to recovery in domestic economic activity and will be conducive to inflation running at the level of the NBP inflation target in the medium term.
