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Erste Group: From export-led recovery to more diversified growth in CEE in 2011

Autor: Bancherul.ro
2010-07-16 17:15

- CEE consumption to pick up about 1-2.5% y/y in real terms in the region next year
- The currently purely export-led economic revival to get more balanced due to increased consumption
- Consumption growth in CEE to be less vulnerable in the coming years due to sustainable saving ratios and net borrowing/lending ratios
- CEE region as front-runner in the global competitiveness of labor due to low labor costs and expected labor market reforms

Erste Group analysts find that disposable income in CEE will pick up by 1-2.5% y/y, and drive consumption by a similar rate. Furthermore, the low unit labour costs in CEE, and structural changes in the labour market, will ensure that the CEE recovery is multi-faceted. The current export-led economic revival will become more balanced as sustainable saving ratios and net borrowing/lending ratios aid consumption growth in the coming years.

"Given the strong deceleration of credit growth and reversal of net borrowing over the last two years, there is fundamentally less need for further adjustments in saving ratios in CEE countries", says Juraj Kotian, Co-Head CEE Macro Research at Erste Group. "Thus, consumption will be strongly tied to the growth of disposable income, which we expect to pick up about 1-2.5% y/y in real terms in the region next year, providing support to GDP growth". The exception is Romania, where higher inflation (due to the VAT increase) will bring real disposable incomes down 0.8% y/y next year. "We therefore expect the currently purely export-led economic revival to get more balanced. Furthermore, sustainable saving ratios and net borrowing/lending ratios should make consumption growth in CEE less vulnerable in the coming years".
The press release

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